There is no question that Trump is desperate for the Iran war to end. The question is, how desperate is he? Is he desperate enough, for instance, that he is willing to go beyond talking tough with Netanyahu and take action on arms sales, intelligence sharing and the like? After all, we have now reached the point in this war of choice where that is what is likely necessary to bring it to an end.
Over the weekend we saw the most serious escalation of the war since the US and Iran struck a ‘truce’ in April. Iran launched a wave of missiles into Northern Israel in retaliation for Israeli attacks near Beirut and in Southern Lebanon. Israel defied President Trump by retaliating with attacks on Tehran. By morning both sides had agreed they would temporarily halt strikes, provided no additional provocations were forthcoming.
While all this was going on, Trump was speaking to reporters, his usual bravado on full display. During an interview with Axios he said “I am going to call Bibi [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one.”
In a conversation with the Financial Times he went even further stating that Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept a deal with Iran, before adding
”I call all the shots.”
If he calls all the shots or has all the cards, as he likes to say, he is going to need to use them if he hopes to end this war. And ending the war is going to require going beyond his usual tough guy rhetoric.
No one should have been surprised that Iran responded to Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon over the weekend. They had been threatening to do that for weeks. Nor should it have been news that Iran was going to enforce its red line in Lebanon with hard power, they have saying that since the war began.
And while none of it was surprising, this weekend did mark a stunning turn in the region. For the first time in decades, a third power made clear they were going to limit Israel’s maneuverability in the region. This is, after all, what Iran has signaled over the last 72 hours, that its deterrence zone extends well beyond itself, into the region more broadly (specifically Lebanon).
There is no question that from Israel’s perspective, this represents a real and existential threat to the nation and one which they will not accept lying down.
All of this puts Trump and the US a very difficult position - Iran is saying an agreement to end the war must be region wide and include Lebanon. To make this deal the US would need to pressure Israel; but since the nation is facing an existential threat, talking will not be enough. Trump will have to remove or limit its ability to strike, and this would require taking action such as potentially limit arms sales, intelligence sharing etc.
The question then is, how desperate is Trump to put this conflict behind him? Is he desperate enough that he is willing to take the steps necessary to pressure a close ally and face the pushback that action will inevitably elicit from inside his own party, not to mention from other sectors?
