News from Tehran and President Trump about the potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz sent the stock market soaring and oil prices plummeting earlier today. Once details emerge regarding just how precarious the situation still is, however, this exuberance could dampen quickly.
Despite Trump’s sunny rhetoric and wishful thinking that he can put this war of choice behind him quickly, the two sides remain very far apart.
Two events over the last 48 hours gave rise to talk that the war may be ending: (1) the temporary ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel and (2) the reopening of the Strait.
Unfortunately, both are fraught.
(1) CEASEFIRE
Israel is still occupying Southern Lebanon and said it will continue to, something which Hezbollah says is a non-starter. Moreover, the agreement is between Lebanon and Israel, not Hezbollah, which said it may not abide by it. Finally, Israel has said an agreement must include the dismantling of Hezbollah, but there is no evidence we are close to that. These are just a few of the many realities which make the temporary ceasefire so precarious, another is the number of saboteurs who have reason to disrupt the temporary peace - from Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel to Hamas, Hezbollah, members of the IRGC and many others.
(2) STRAIT REOPENING
Iran agreed to reopen the Strait under certain conditions. One is that the ceasefire holds, something which is not guaranteed. A second is that the US ends its blockade, something which Trump said today he is not doing, at least yet. According to Tehran, other terms of the reopening are that only commercial vessels (not military) will be allowed through and in that case, only via Iran’s predesignated channels. Moreover, there is no information regarding whether Iran will charge tolls for passage, etc.
Even if the ceasefire lasts and the Strait is fully re-opened, all this means is that the stage has been set another round of negotiations between the US and Iran. In short, we are back where we were in late February and the two sides remain as far apart now as they were then.
By all accounts, the U.S.’s 15 Point-Plan to end the war is as maximalist and vital to the administration as ever; as is Iran’s 10 Point-Plan to the regime in Tehran. Even a cursory look at the list of major demands on both sides shows just how difficult it would be for a U.S. president to agree to Iran’s demands, and vice-versa as it pertains to Irans rulers.
All of which is to say, best case scenario at the end of the day we are back to the table, same place we were before the war began; only then - gas was hovering around $2.98/gallon.
Iran’s 10 Point-Plan to end the war includes:
lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran
continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz
withdrawal of the U.S. military from the Middle East
an end to attacks on Iran and its allies
the release of frozen Iranian assets.
a UN security council resolution making any deal binding.
concrete guarantees preventing the recurrence of war
guaranteed payment of war damages and compensation
U.S.’s Plan to end the war has not been published, but is said to demand of Iran that they:
commit to never developing nuclear weapons
no longer enrich uranium within the country, and hand over its stockpile of already enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
commit to allowing the IAEA to monitor all elements of the country’s remaining nuclear infrastructure
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
ending support for regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen
limiting the range and number of its missiles
