If you read one piece on the current state of the U.S. with Iran, make it Robert Kagan’s most recent article in The Atlantic “Checkmate in Iran.”
The fact that Kagan, a columnist and scholar, is also one of America’s most noteworthy Neo-conservatives is part of what makes his assessment of the war so devastating.
Perhaps the best way to summarize the work, which should be read in full, is by citing the lyrics of Kenny Rogers “The Gambler” – “‘you’ve got to… know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run.”
Kagan begins by noting that “[I ]t’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored.” He goes on to talk about the most devastating wars in modern American history, from WWII and Vietnam to Afghanistan. In each, he claims, the U.S. was ultimately able to either ‘reverse losses’ or leave without damaging our standing in the world irrevocably. Not so he writes of this current war of choice.
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran... can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started.
Speaking of gambling, Kagan notes, “President Trump likes to talk about who has ‘the cards,’ but whether he has any good ones left to play is not clear.”
Kagan’s conclusion is like that of so many military and Middle East experts, unless the U.S. is prepared to send in ground troops and topple the regime, and remain on the ground in force until a more stable government is put into place – all the bravado is for naught. This is why he concludes that “walking away now” is the ‘least of the bad options available.’
For such a complex situation, our top three options can be summarized easily:
1. Walk away (i.e., fold ‘em, Kagan’s advice’)
2. Finish the job (i.e., regime change, which cannot be achieved without boots on the ground and a willingness to pay huge costs – economic, political, humanitarian, etc.)
3. Double down on current efforts (i.e., maintain the status quo as it pertains to the blockade, etc. which would be economically costly and politically painful for Trump and the GOP in particular)
When it comes to which of these bad options is in the long term interests of the U.S., Kagan is right in arguing the answer is #1.
