Last Friday, April 17, it looked like the war was winding down. Negotiators for the U.S. and Iran had met in Islamabad and, as the president said in a Truth Social post, “The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage… This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated."
Likewise, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on X that “in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open.”
On this welcome news, optimism soared, markets surged and oil prices plummeted (Brent dropped over 10% to ~$89, WTI fell 11% to ~$84).
Then, in a head scratching turn, Trump announced that the U.S. blockade would remain in place and the U.S. would retain the right to board ships coming from and going to Iran.
It was a strategic and diplomatic misstep of epic proportions as Tehran, already distrustful of the U.S., responded in-kind. Within hours, the Strait was closed again and it has remained that way ever since; moreover, the two sides have yet to get back to the negotiating table despite the best efforts of the Pakistani negotiating team.
In response how did one of Trump’s closest ally’s and the person who some say played a key role in nudging the president to bomb Iran in the first place, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), react to the news?
Very well!
Taking to X on Wednesday, he described “the decision to leave the blockade in place” as “very smart,” before adding that he expects the blockade to grow and “become global soon.”
What Graham describes as “very smart” historians are likely to see in a much different light. While he and others in the administration talk about ‘escalating to deescalate’ and promote moving up the escalation ladder - this is not a winning strategy for the U.S. For one thing, any escalation will result in a response by Iran. Second, since the U.S. and Israel represent an existential threat to Iran, their main objective is to survive and, as history has shown us, they will fight to the end to do that.
This war will not be settled on the battlefield, it will require careful and thoughtful diplomacy by experts in Iran and the Middle East who are prepared to enter extended negotiations on a range of issues on behalf of the U.S. Before they do this, however, trust must be established and what happened on Friday as it pertained to the blockade served only to foment further mistrust.
